by RIP RENSE
(Nov. 1, 2004)
Kerry is in. Game
over. Bush out. I'll bet my Beatles albums on it. Even the 1970 "Let it
be" boxed set.
Predictions in tight
races are folly, of course. You just set yourself up for ridicule and shattered
credibility. In the case of The Rip Post, what else is new?
I'm no astute analyst
of polls and demographics. I'm no student of politics or elections. I'm no pundit
obsessing over each new set of numbers, like a dog sniffing over a new potential urination
target. I wear no bow-tie.
But I had a feeling,
for lack of a more concrete term, about a week ago. Kerry is in. Deal done. To
invoke the words of the late American poet, Francis "Chick" Hearn: "it's in
the refrigerator, the lights are out, the Jello is jiggling, the eggs are cooling, and the
butter's getting hard."
No, no, nothing
metaphysical here. I'm not about to teach "You ARE Psychic!" at the Learning
Annex, or open a palm-reading clinic. Although I'd make better money at either.
I just cannot believe
that my country---out of sheer reptile-brained fear---would re-elect such montebanks as
currently ruin---er, run---things here. I can't believe that the majority of the
people of the United States would ultimately cast their vote out of fear of the Missing
Arab Smith Brother on a TV screen.
As I wrote in a column
some time back, what in the hell ever happened to "we have nothing to fear
but fear itself?"
Kerry will be president
just as sure as Bush cannot pronounce "nuclear," and Cheney smiles like a
mortician arranged it with stitches. My country cannot be so lights-out dumb, so
slaveringly greedy, so fanatically misguided, so snake-oil conned, so alpha-brained
stupefied by media, so worm-wriggling primitive, for it to be otherwise. Can it?
My hunches about these
things tend to be good; call it reporter's instinct. But I have other reasons:
was the first in the media to note one of them: cell phones. Leave it to an old
reporter like Breslin to get on this very real story: millions of people who only have
cell phones were never polled. There are no cell phone directories. Who are these
millions? Well, I haven't done any studies, but I'll bet the majority of them are not old
white chickenhawks. I'll bet the majority of them are young people and women. And I'll bet
that the majority of young people and women are voting for John Kerry.
Young people and women,
you see, tend to have a more serious aversion to death and unnecessary war.
Factor into this the
news that many millions have registered to vote for the very first time, and that a lot
more of them, from what I've read, are Democrats than Repugnicans (about 150,000 to 50,000
in L.A. alone ), and you start to wonder if there is not only a Kerry victory lurking, but
a convincing one.
Then there is
the Sean "Puffy" Combs, or Puff Daddy, or P. Diddy, or H. Doody, or
whatever he calls himself. . .factor. Don't underestimate the power of a rap/hip-hop pop
star to sway votes (sad to say.) Ditto for the terrific video, "Mosh," by
Eminem, and The Boss's appearances with Kerry. I have a friend who is, unlike me, a very
keen and insightful student of politics and current events. He says Diddy might do it:
"I think Combs has
actually frightened the conservatives, as the 'Mallard Fillmore' cartoonist and also the
fascist columnist Mona Charen have been on a consistent rant recently to the effect that
stupid, ignorant, uninformed people should have no right to vote (read: newly registered
young people, especially minority young people)," he said. "The fact that
both of them would go ballistic on this issue two weeks before the election seems more
than coincidental. I think it implies that they've probably gotten their marching orders
from their right-wing think tank friends."
I think he's
right---er, that is, correct. And there are other reasons: Jon Daley's show is
the number-one source of "news" for young people, by far. While I normally would
consider this rather horrifying, I find much more truth on Daley---and much more comedy on
Brokaw, Rather, Jennings, and the rest of the newsmannequins. Then there is the comforting
statistic that no incumbent president with less than a 50 percent approval rating has been
reelected (Bush is at a lowly 46); and the even more comforting children's polls that have
overwhelmingly elect Kerry. Maybe they should lower the voting age. . .
Finally, I cite
two most critical and compelling factors: Bush is ugly as a chihuahua and twice
as stupid; and Hunter Thompson, who is never wrong, said this:
"This year's first
presidential debate was such a disaster for George Bush that his handlers had to be crazy
to let him get in the ring with John Kerry again. Yet Karl Rove let it happen, and we can
only wonder why. But there is no doubt that the president has lost his nerve, and his
career in the White House is finished. NO MAS."
Now, dear voters, let
us part the odoriferous mists of time and, holding our noses, peer back to the year 2000.
Bush lost the popular vote by half-a-million, when Gore's support was as strong as Bush's
legs after a couple of fifths of V.O.. Many did not bother to go out and vote for Al, and
a lot of masochistic idealists made sure Bush won by voting for that psychopath, our pet
goat, Ralph Nader.
Nader is at a popularity nadir, despite the tacit devil's deal he made with
Repugnicans who helped get his name on ballots. This time, all Dem who did not
bother to vote for Al in 2000 are mad as hell and not going to take it anymore, and are
currently busy phoning and pissing off people in Ohio. The Senator is thus guaranteed a
much larger popular vote than Gore received.
The question, then, is
whether Bush's ranks---like his BB-sized head---have also swelled since 9/11. I say they
haven't. I say that roughly the same number of people who voted for him in 2000 will turn
out this time. Why? Two words: Rush Limbaugh. Ten years of doing the Limbaugh over Monica
and Bill whipped the Repugnicans into as much of a froth as they are capable of frothing.
In other words, they were maxed-out in 2000, hate-wise---as galvanized as they could
possible have been.
Can fear of
Bin-Laden---the lifeblood of Bush/Cheney support---significantly add to that
hate-based bloc of 2000? The 46 percent approval rating tells me "no." Those
millions of new Democratic voters tell me "no." Limbaugh lower now? I think not.
The Little Prez will lose the popular vote---and unless Jeb Bush poisons the water in
Broward County, and Karl Rove programs Ohio voting machines---the electoral vote.
Interesting, isn't it,
that the two ingredients for uniting Repugnicans in recent years are fear, and hatred?
Last but not lousiest,
I cite the fact that no president in my lifetime has ever been the recipient of such
fecund, decorative, smelly, intergalactic denunciation as George W. Bush---and that
includes LBJ and even Nixon. The entire world opposes him, it seems, including a great
many dogs, cats, conservatives and conservative media (beginning with "The American
Conservative" magazine, which endorsed Kerry!) People smell a chickenhawk rat; only
hardcore Bush supporters, whose reading and comprehension abilities are well-qualified for
"My Pet Goat," believe that Iraq is anything other than an Animal House
So I repeat:
Kerry will be president just as sure as Bush was wired in the debates, just as
sure as Colin Powell lied to the U.N., just as sure as Richard Perle was suckled by a
werewolf, just as sure as Condoleezza Rice should have stuck with the piano, just as sure
as Donald Rumsfeld has disappeared from public view, just as sure as Paul Wolfowitz licks
his comb, just as sure as John Ashcroft thinks calico cats are agents of Satan, just as
sure as Dick Cheney is being kept alive by voodoo witch doctors, just as sure as. . .
The majority of
American people usually try to do the right thing.
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